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Sunday, 30 December 2007


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Patrick Joubert Conlon

That was a most enjoyable post.


OK... fair. I deserved it. And you're right, at least about the potential and the need for those who believe in him to say so and get the hell on board. Proving me wrong about his chances will be the greatest New Year's gift I could ask for. Actually, it's the greatest one we could all ask for.

'Scuze me while I slip up to my rooftop to do some hollering...

Happy New Year, Heidianne! :)

heidianne jackson

glad you enjoyed it patrick - not sure how i posted it yesterday instead of today (i wrote it this morning) but i'm sure glad you found it and i hope more do too.

happy new year!

heidianne jackson

i'm very hopeful. he's even [started] getting some good press from drudge and fox news. the other night gary bauer predicted fred would get the party's nomination and i'm holding on tight to that.

just keep the faith and blog on him as well to get your readership that varies from mine going too.

happy new year to you and yours' too!!!


Well Heidianne, for whatever reason, Thompson has essentially ceded the Conservative core to Huckabee...at least for the moment.

Huckabee is articulate, eloquent, with a sense of humor, BUT he's been very weak on illegal immigration, almost "pro-illegal immigrant," going so far as to offer the children of illegals "In-State" tuition rates, while citizens from out of state paid a higher rate under Huckabee's plan than foreign born nationals and ILLEGAL ones at that! How is Huckabee still leading Thompson among Conservative voters?

The BIGGER obstacle Thompson faces is that the GOP hierarchy, its "monied interests" see Rudy & Romney as "the only candidates who could possibly beat a Democrat in the national election."

Regardless of whether that is true or not, it is the viewpoint that those monied interests come from and many of those interests are so-called "Moderate" or "Country Club" Republicans. That's the primary reason why Ronald Reagan was forced to pick a fellow Moderate (Bush Sr) as VP back in 1980, instead of his own first choice Mo Udall from Utah.

Fred Thompson has a lot of work to do to win over the Republican hierarchy. I think his camp initially felt he was a shoe-in as the most articulate Republican, but that's not held true - Romney is by far the most telegenic and slickly packaged GOP candidate, Rudy is, despite a slew of flaws, very articulate and even convincing, despite being a shameless self-promoter, on the subject of terrorism and even Huckabee has proven to be a better communicator than the Thompson camp envisioned.

As a result, Fred Thompson hasn't stood out and he hasn't gotten the traction he so desperately needs.

We're now nearly within a month of "Super Tuesday" and the nomination for both Parties will be pretty much sewn up by the end of that day.

Can Fred Thompson make a move?

Yes, the field, at this point, is still wide open, but trailing Huckabee, Romney and McCain in Iowa is not a good sign.

The latest Des moines Register poll has Huckabee leading with 28.3% to Romney's 27.7%, then falling off deeply to McCain at a mere 12% and Thompson at 10.7%.

The BIG news out of Iowa will almost certainly be Rudy's poor showing (dead last at appx. 5%). THAT will be the #1 story. The number two story will be who wins for the GOP...that means that falling below 2nd place will probably equate to no media visibility coming out of Iowa. That's very BAD news for all but the top TWO.

Can Thompson vault into that top TWO within 48 hours (by Thursday)?

While it doesn't look like it, stranger things have happened. Perhaps this last minute talk will really help.

The problem for Fred Thompson is that, right now, he's 4th in Iowa and 6th (dead last) in New Hamshire, where it's Romney 31.5%, McCain 25.8%, Giuliani 12.8%, Huckabee 10.6, Ron Paul 7.0& and Fred with 3.4%.

The ONLY good news for Thompson right now is that "There's no where but UP to go." You might also say that there is a general sense of dissatisfaction with their candidates from the GOP side, so if Huckabee slides, Thompson may be THE Conservative to benefit, BUT, that would have to happen very SOON! Coming out of the first two Primaries, voters in other states tend to look at the trends - for instance Rudy DOWN and Romney UP, so unless someone can effectively stake out and sew up the Conservative base and effectively challenge for at least the number two position BEFORE "Super Tuesday," it's probably not going to happen for them.

Right now, the big news is that in the first two Primaries, Rudy is not fairing well, but Romney certainly is - neck-and-neck in Iowa with Huckabee, while leading New Hampshire.

Huckabee has flirted with the top position because the Conservative base isn't embracing either Rudy or Romney, but the fact that it's been Huckabee and NOT Fred Thompson who's done that bodes very ominously for Thompson's chances.

Right now, from a betting perspective, it looks like Romney's sharing some of that "Boston magic" (the Red Sox, Patriots, Celtics have all been red hot and dominating their respective sports)right now and could go into "Super Tuesday" as the GOP front-runner.

Unless a Thompson or McCain makes a very effective pitch, one that pretty much eliminates all but themselves and Romney from serious contention, those guys are all in serious trouble, as Rudy's the only GOP candidate with the name recognition to come back from a few poor showings.

It CAN be done, but it's a very hard mountain to climb at this point.

That's just my cents.

Chelle Adkins

Hi there! This is Chelle Adkins (quoted above in the article). I just bumped into your blog. It's pretty awesome!

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